We just published a lengthy case study for GA comparing it to Florida, Texas, and Arizona. Read the whole study here.
The summary:
- We expected deaths to start to go back up anywhere from 17-20 days after the first surge in cases
- We use a *very* simple run rate of new cases per day until the end of July (~2,600 new cases per day)
- We create a lower and upper bound of expected deaths (1.1% lower and 2.4% upper) based on cases
- We recognize that there are more cases than are reported but for the purposes of this model, we're just using reported data
In conclusion, we think a few things will happen:
- We expect deaths to start to rise again in Georgia on July 10th
- The upper bound (for the rest of the month) will hit around July 22nd with 83 reported deaths
- The lower bound will hit around July 21st with 38 reported deaths
