I was curious to see how the 7 day rolling average in case changes between 3 hot button states evolved over the month of June. So I created this chart. It takes the 7 day average in case changes for FL, TX, and GA and charts those changes on a per capita basis to account for population differences (GA = 10M residents, TX = 29.9M, FL = 21M). Here's what I take away from this chart:
- At the beginning of June, GA had more per capita changes per day than either TX or FL (about 70% more than FL and 30% more than TX)
- The three states stayed more or less unchanged until mid June
- On June 15th, FL officially overtook GA in 7 day average. On June 17th, TX overtook GA.
- By the end of June (the writing of this case study) FL is 73% ahead of GA and TX is 8.6% ahead of GA.
So what does all this mean? My take is GA has been "slower" in this new wave. I think looking at TX and FL, states with similar philosophies to reopening as GA (by philosophy we mean not actually having a coherent strategy), could help us understand where the state is headed. The next 7 days in Georgia will likely follow what happened to FL in late June -- severe upswings in new cases.